Blackjack is one of the few casino games where skill can swing the odds in the player’s favor. The key is learning the perfect strategy. Each mistake costs the player money over the long run. Here are some examples of the most common blackjack mistakes and how much they cost the player. This article was created with help from the Wizard of Odds Blackjack Calculator.
12 Versus a Dealer 2 and 3
One of the biggest blackjack mistakes is standing on 12 against a dealer 2 or 3. The player will encounter one of these two hands about once every 37 hands. At a full table, that means it happens about twice an hour. Hitting and standing both have a negative expectation. The player should hit in both situations.
Standing on 12 against a 2 costs $0.037 for every dollar wagered. Standing on it versus a 3 drops the return by $0.018.
Soft 18
Soft 18 is the most misplayed hand in blackjack. A player is dealt it about once every 84 hands in a six-deck blackjack game. Players stand too much on soft 18. Only stand with this hand against a 7 or 8. Double it down against a 2 to 6 and hit it against a 9, 10, or ace. This is how standing at the wrong time on soft 18 costs each time for every $1 wagered to the nearest tenth of a penny.
- 2: Less than $0.01
- 3: $0.034
- 4: $0.074
- 5: $0.103
- 6: $0.134
- 9: $0.094
- 10: $0.036
- Ace: $0.065
Soft 17
Soft 17 also occurs about once every 84 hands in a six-deck blackjack game. Players often make mistakes on this hand. It should be doubled down against a 3 to 6 and hit with all other hands. The player loses the following amount for every dollar wagered when standing instead of making the correct play.
- 2: $0.15
- 3: $0.161 ($0.028 when hitting instead of doubling)
- 4: $0.199 ($0.061 when hitting instead of doubling)
- 5: $0.236 ($0.098 when hitting instead of doubling)
- 6: $0.247 ($0.126 when hitting instead of doubling)
- 7: $0.159
- 8: $0.311
- 9: $0.274
- 10: $0.224
- Ace: $0.293
Other Soft Hands
While soft 17 and 18 are the most misplayed, other soft hands are commonly hit when they should be doubled down. If the table lets you double down in the following soft hand scenarios, you should. The monetary difference listed is comparing hitting when the proper play is a double down. Standing on these hands exponentially increases the expected loss.
Soft 13
Soft 13 should be doubled against a 5 or 6, when permitted. Hitting instead is a less than 1% mistake against a 5. However, versus a dealer 6, the player is giving up $0.038 for every dollar wagered of the original bet by hitting instead of doubling down.
Soft 14
Like soft 13, a soft 14 should be doubled against a dealer 5 or 6. The player gives up $0.024 per dollar versus a 5 when hitting instead of doubling, and $0.057 when the dealer has a 6.
Soft 15
Soft 15 should be doubled versus a dealer 4, 5, or 6. When the dealer has a 4, the difference is only about 0.5% when hitting as opposed to the proper double down play. Against a 5, it increases to $0.04. When the dealer has a 6, the player gives up $0.073 for every dollar wagered when hitting instead of doubling down.
Soft 16
Like soft 15, soft 16 should be doubled when the dealer shows a 4, 5, or 6. Hitting it wrongly costs $0.022 when the dealer shows a 4, $0.055 against a 5, and $0.094 versus a 6.
Splits 4s
Some players do not realize that a pair of 4s should be split against a 5 or 6 when doubling down after splitting is permitted. When hitting instead, the player gives up $0.032 of every dollar from the original bet for every dollar wagered. Against a 6, it is $0.094.
Standing on 15 and 16 against the dealer’s high cards
Standing on 15 and 16 against a dealer’s 7 or higher is a mistake. When surrender is not offered, these hands should be hit against all these dealer door cards. This is how much a player loses for every dollar wagered when standing instead of properly hitting.
When surrender is offered, the player should take advantage of that with 15 against a 10 or ace and 16 versus a 9, 10, and ace.
Player 15
- Dealer 7: $0.107
- Dealer 8: $0.096
- Dealer 9: $0.07
- Dealer 10: $0.036
- Dealer ace: $0.089
Player 16
- Dealer 7: $0.068
- Dealer 8: $0.06
- Dealer 9: $0.038
- Dealer 10: less than $0.01
- Dealer ace: $0.058
There are more hands that players make small mistakes on at blackjack tables. It is imperative to learn the basic strategy for the rules of your game. Keep in mind that the above examples are at a six-deck game. The strategy changes for many of these hands at single and double-deck tables.
Last Updated on October 1, 2025 by John Mehaffey