I have played most games in Las Vegas. I have heard nearly all of the superstitions. These are often called gambler’s fallacies. Most are easily debunked.
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The video poker machines are tighter or looser on certain days
I played some video poker at a local tavern on a recent Sunday. When I sat down, the woman next to me warned that the machines are tighter on Sundays. The pay tables looked the same that day as any other day. Since a video poker game has random cards, the only way to change its payout is to adjust the pay table. If the pay table is the same, then it is no tighter or looser than it is on a different day.
This fallacy also made me wonder why a gaming tavern would want what is probably its slowest day of the week to also be its tightest. I doubt it is because the owners think their players should spend it with their families or at church.
And if this woman thinks that the machines don’t pay on Sundays, then why is she there? Shouldn’t she save her bankroll for a better day to play, or go somewhere with hot machines on Sundays? This woman also jumped from machine to machine every few minutes, which does not change anything, as each one in this tavern is the same.
Machines that are hot and cold
A machine may seem hot, meaning it has many payouts in a short time. It can also be perceived as cold, not paying out anything. Neither of these is relevant to the future return on the game. Each hand is independent of the previous one. The machine does not remember if you are due or not. This is the case for slots, video poker, keno, and electronic table games.
I also hear some players mention that they do not draw for certain cards because they were seen in the previous hand. A video poker machine reshuffles after every hand. The same card from the hand before is just as likely to appear in the next hand as any other card. And you are no more or less likely to hit a royal flush if the previous hand was a royal flush.
You took the dealer’s bust card at blackjack
Some blackjack players like getting angry about any perceived change in cards caused by a player hitting. These players often do not know basic strategy as their complaints tend to be about proper play. These players often make many obvious strategy mistakes.
In a sample size of one, it may seem like the player sitting in third base took the dealer’s bust card. However, over a million hands, it does not matter. The cards are random. This player could just as easily take the small card that would have made the dealer win, leaving a bust card for the house. Whether the player used the correct strategy is irrelevant to this outcome.
There are many craps superstitions
Craps players seem to have many superstitions. These tend to involve the increased likelihood that a 7 will be rolled after a die bounces off the table, the dealers rotate, or the dice hit a hand.
There is a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 7. None of these things affect that math. Pulling bets off the table after some random event pauses play has nothing to do with the outcome of the next roll. A die that hits a dealer or player’s hand has a 1 in 6 chance of landing on any specific number. The dice do not know that there is any difference.
Some players feel the same way when someone buys into the game in the middle of a roll. While this is rude and slows the game down, a 7 being rolled next is still a 1 in 6 shot.
I never see any of these players hop the sevens or lay the spread to lose when their superstition says that the shooter is about to crap out. And if any of this mattered, the house would not let players count the dice.
Another fun craps fallacy is the success of a virgin shooter. This theory is that the person that has never touched the dice at a craps table will have a hot roll. While this was true the first time my wife shot craps, it was simply a random event that created a perceived hot roll. The chances of her going point-seven in two rolls was just as likely to happen to her as the person that plays craps eight hours a day. Her first visit to a craps table did not change those odds.
Roulette boards with past calls
Most roulette tables have a board with the last 20 or so spins. These results may display statistical anomalies. It may show that a disproportionate percentage of red or black numbers have been called, or that a certain number is hot.
Assuming the wheel is not warped, these results have no use in future spins. If it did, the casino would not broadcast this information. You never see a sign at a blackjack table displaying how many aces are left in the deck. The ball and the wheel have no idea what the last number was, if it is hot, and whether a different number is due.
I noticed a similar feature on new video stadium games. These will show such useless stats as how long it has been since a player was a dealt blackjack, how many hands since the dealer qualified in Three Card Poker, and how often bonus payouts occurred at Ultimate Texas Hold’em. None of this helps in determining future results.
Using a players card affects the outcome of a game
I have heard many different variations on the players card superstition. Some players think that if their card is in the machine during a hot streak, the casino will know it is their turn to lose. I have also heard the opposite where the players card is causing them to lose, so removing it will change their luck.
Casino players cards are not connected to the random number generator in the machine. It simply reports facts like the coin-in, theoretical loss and actual win and loss to the operator. Your slot pull or video poker hand is exactly the same whether your card is in the machine or not. Gaming regulations require this.
Sports betting
There are some useful trends in sports betting. However, there are many more useless ones. The number of times in a row that the Super Bowl coin flip winner has lost the game has no effect on future outcomes. However, you will hear sports betting commentators note when the 2023 Super Bowl comes around that the winner of the coin toss has lost the last eight games. The coin does not know that. The team is not going to play differently because they guessed the coin toss correctly. It is two independent events with no correlation.
There are other trends that should be ignored when making sports bets. These tend to be cherry picked statistics like what happened the last time a team lost three road games in a row as a favorite, or chasing meaningless streaks. Most include instances when the team had entirely different players years ago. Any useful sportsbook trend is already built into the odds. You are no better or worse off with this information.
Just have fun, even if it means being a little superstitious
If being superstitious makes gambling more enjoyable, then that is great. Being entertained is the point. Just know that the math does not support it.